Spatial bias in LUTI models

Sommaire

I Introduction and state-of-the-art 1

1 General introduction 3

1.1 Research focus and motivations 3

1.2 Terminology 5

1.3 Methodological choices and outline of the thesis 7

2 Space in Land Use and Transport Interactions models 13

2.1 Introduction 13

2.2 An history of space within LUTI models 14

2.3 Representation of space within LUTI models 24

2.4 Spatial extent and resolution: a meta-analysis 29

2.5 Spatial bias and LUTI models 38

II Sensitivity of LUTI models' econometric components 45

3 Boundary effect on land price determinants 47

3.1 Introduction 47

3.2 The case study 48

3.3 Methodology 58

3.4 Results 59

3.5 Discussion 63

3.6 Summary and implications for LUTI models 65

4 Scale effect in a MNL model of employment’ location choices 67

4.1 Introduction 67

4.2 Case study 68

4.3 Econometric estimations and sensitivity analyses 72

4.4 Results 78

4.5 Discussion 83

Contents

4.6 Summary and implications for LUTI models 87

IIISensitivity of LUTI models’ outputs 91

5 Experiments on a synthetic case study 93

5.1 Introduction 93

5.2 The UrbanSim model 94

5.3 A simple, small-scale, synthetic city for UrbanSim 99

5.4 Mono centric configuration 104

5.5 Polycentric case study 120

5.6 Implications for real-world applications 130

6 The Brussels case study: lessons for policy evaluations 133

6.1 Introduction 133

6.2 Policy evaluation in LUTI models 134

6.3 Data and methodology 135

6.4 Results 144

6.5 Discussion 149

6.6 Conclusion 154

IVRecommendations and conclusion 155

7 Recommendations and conclusion 157

7.1 Executive summary 157

7.2 Best spatial practices in LUTI models 161

7.3 Toward an optimal spatial model 165

7.4 Another approach? 168

7.5 Concluding words 174

V Appendices 177

A Appendices of Chapter 2 179

A.1 The Lowrymodel 179

A.2 MEPLAN 180

A.3 IRPUD 180

A.4 TRANUS 182

A.5 DELTA 184

A.6 MUSSA 184

A.7 PECAS 185

282

Contents

A.8 Additional tables and figures 188

B Appendices of Chapter 3 195

B.1 Additional tables and figures 195

C Appendices of Chapter 4 203

C.1 Additional tables and Figures 203

D Appendices of Chapter 5 211

D.1 Database of a zone-version of UrbanSim 212

D.2 Sub models of a zone-version of UrbanSim 217

D.3 Additional tables and figures 224

E Appendices of Chapter 6 231

E.1 Additional tables and figures 231

F Appendices of Chapter 7 241

F.1 Additional tables and figures 241

Bibliography 245

List of Tables 277

List of Figures 279

Contents 281